Data through 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026)
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Panama Canal cuts Neopanamax draft and daily transit slots

Panama Canal cuts Neopanamax draft and daily transit slots. The disruption ran from 2026-07-01 (July 2026), and is ongoing, affecting Panama Canal. Panama Canal averaged 7.9 transits per day during the event window against an expected 8.2 (-4.2%). Panama Canal averaged 30.1 transits per day during the event window against an expected 33.1 (-9.1%).

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Key facts

Started
2026-07-01 (July 2026)
Ended
Not ended
Status
ongoing
Severity
3 Significant
Scope
chokepoint
Chokepoints
Panama Canal
Ports
None
Lanes
None
Countries
Panama
Confidence
high: Four dated canal authority notices agree on the draft and slot steps. The exact start is uncertain: press put the first cut at 2026-07-01 while the advisory read gives 2026-07-24 for its first step, so the start is recorded to the month. PortWatch transit counts fell only about 10 percent, so the measured effect is small.
First reported
2026-06-05 (5 June 2026)
  • Severity basis: Any restriction at a chokepoint: the Panama Canal Authority lowered the maximum Neopanamax draft in steps from July 2026 and cut daily lock slots from 2026-09-03.

What happened

The Panama Canal Authority began cutting the maximum draft allowed in the Neopanamax locks in July 2026, citing low water in Gatun Lake and a developing El Nino. An advisory dated 2026-07-01 (1 July 2026) set 14.94 metres from 2026-07-24, then 14.78 metres from 2026-08-15; a notice of 2026-08-05 added 14.63 metres and 14.48 metres. From 2026-09-03 the canal reduced daily Neopanamax slots to nine and Panamax slots to 25, with 23 from 2026-09-15. On 2026-09-04 it postponed the 14.48 metre step and kept 14.63 metres. IMF PortWatch daily transits averaged 32.3 from May to 2026-07-23 and 29.2 from 2026-07-24 to 2026-09-02.

Measured effect

Transits, all vessel types, Panama Canal

Baseline (expected)
33.1 transits per day
Observed
30.1 transits per day
Change
-3.0 (-9.1%)
Standardised score
-0.5
Event window
2026-07-01 to 2026-09-20 (82 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2026-04-29 to 2026-06-23 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-22 (22 September 2026), data revision 1:d883fb75a39b
Transits, all vessel types, Panama CanalTransits, all vessel types, Panama Canal, 2026-04-22 (22 April 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 23 transits per day on 2026-06-13 to 83 transits per day on 2026-07-13, with a mean of 31.4 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 29 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-13.0204060801002026-04-222026-07-032026-09-13
Transits, all vessel types, Panama Canal, 2026-04-22 (22 April 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 23 transits per day on 2026-06-13 to 83 transits per day on 2026-07-13, with a mean of 31.4 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 29 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-13.

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-09-15 (15 September 2026).

Transits, all vessel types, Panama Canal (transits per day).
Datetransits per day
2026-04-2235
2026-04-2335
2026-04-2434
2026-04-2537
2026-04-2636
2026-04-2733
2026-04-2836
2026-04-2938
2026-04-3035
2026-05-0137
2026-05-0239
2026-05-0333
2026-05-0440
2026-05-0530
2026-05-0636
2026-05-0736
2026-05-0833
2026-05-0933
2026-05-1036
2026-05-1134
2026-05-1232
2026-05-1334
2026-05-1433
2026-05-1534
2026-05-1635
2026-05-1735
2026-05-1833
2026-05-1934
2026-05-2040
2026-05-2137
2026-05-2232
2026-05-2336
2026-05-2434
2026-05-2531
2026-05-2634
2026-05-2735
2026-05-2832
2026-05-2933
2026-05-3034
2026-05-3129
2026-06-0132
2026-06-0229
2026-06-0332
2026-06-0426
2026-06-0533
2026-06-0631
2026-06-0732
2026-06-0830
2026-06-0925
2026-06-1025
2026-06-1125
2026-06-1224
2026-06-1323
2026-06-1426
2026-06-1524
2026-06-1624
2026-06-1723
2026-06-1835
2026-06-1932
2026-06-2033
2026-06-2136
2026-06-2232
2026-06-2334
2026-06-2427
2026-06-2533
2026-06-2636
2026-06-2733
2026-06-2833
2026-06-2930
2026-06-3032
2026-07-0136
2026-07-0231
2026-07-0334
2026-07-0430
2026-07-0537
2026-07-0629
2026-07-0727
2026-07-0832
2026-07-0932
2026-07-1031
2026-07-1129
2026-07-1234
2026-07-1383
2026-07-1429
2026-07-1528
2026-07-1629
2026-07-1732
2026-07-1831
2026-07-1934
2026-07-2028
2026-07-2130
2026-07-2223
2026-07-2330
2026-07-2431
2026-07-2530
2026-07-2624
2026-07-2731
2026-07-2831
2026-07-2930
2026-07-3033
2026-07-3129
2026-08-0133
2026-08-0227
2026-08-0329
2026-08-0431
2026-08-0531
2026-08-0629
2026-08-0733
2026-08-0828
2026-08-0929
2026-08-1026
2026-08-1130
2026-08-1229
2026-08-1328
2026-08-1431
2026-08-1531
2026-08-1633
2026-08-1723
2026-08-1827
2026-08-1931
2026-08-2027
2026-08-2126
2026-08-2225
2026-08-2328
2026-08-2430
2026-08-2525
2026-08-2628
2026-08-2731
2026-08-2829
2026-08-2930
2026-08-3031
2026-08-3129
2026-09-0131
2026-09-0230
2026-09-0330
2026-09-0430
2026-09-0534
2026-09-0626
2026-09-0727
2026-09-0830
2026-09-0931
2026-09-1034
2026-09-1128
2026-09-1229
2026-09-1329

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Transits, container ships, Panama Canal

Baseline (expected)
8.2 transits per day
Observed
7.9 transits per day
Change
-0.3 (-4.2%)
Standardised score
-0.1
Event window
2026-07-01 to 2026-09-20 (82 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2026-04-29 to 2026-06-23 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-22 (22 September 2026), data revision 1:832b40cfcdc0
Transits, container ships, Panama CanalTransits, container ships, Panama Canal, 2026-04-22 (22 April 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 4 transits per day on 2026-04-27 to 20 transits per day on 2026-07-13, with a mean of 8.0 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 8 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-13.051015202026-04-222026-07-032026-09-13
Transits, container ships, Panama Canal, 2026-04-22 (22 April 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 4 transits per day on 2026-04-27 to 20 transits per day on 2026-07-13, with a mean of 8.0 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 8 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-13.

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-09-15 (15 September 2026).

Transits, container ships, Panama Canal (transits per day).
Datetransits per day
2026-04-228
2026-04-237
2026-04-249
2026-04-258
2026-04-2610
2026-04-274
2026-04-2810
2026-04-299
2026-04-309
2026-05-019
2026-05-029
2026-05-039
2026-05-0410
2026-05-058
2026-05-068
2026-05-075
2026-05-087
2026-05-0910
2026-05-1010
2026-05-115
2026-05-124
2026-05-138
2026-05-1410
2026-05-158
2026-05-168
2026-05-179
2026-05-189
2026-05-196
2026-05-208
2026-05-219
2026-05-228
2026-05-239
2026-05-247
2026-05-2512
2026-05-268
2026-05-279
2026-05-288
2026-05-295
2026-05-3011
2026-05-317
2026-06-017
2026-06-026
2026-06-0311
2026-06-044
2026-06-057
2026-06-0611
2026-06-078
2026-06-088
2026-06-0910
2026-06-107
2026-06-118
2026-06-124
2026-06-138
2026-06-1414
2026-06-156
2026-06-168
2026-06-179
2026-06-189
2026-06-198
2026-06-209
2026-06-216
2026-06-229
2026-06-236
2026-06-247
2026-06-258
2026-06-268
2026-06-279
2026-06-289
2026-06-296
2026-06-307
2026-07-0111
2026-07-026
2026-07-037
2026-07-049
2026-07-0510
2026-07-066
2026-07-078
2026-07-088
2026-07-098
2026-07-108
2026-07-117
2026-07-126
2026-07-1320
2026-07-148
2026-07-156
2026-07-169
2026-07-175
2026-07-1811
2026-07-195
2026-07-206
2026-07-2110
2026-07-228
2026-07-239
2026-07-248
2026-07-258
2026-07-269
2026-07-279
2026-07-2811
2026-07-297
2026-07-309
2026-07-317
2026-08-019
2026-08-028
2026-08-035
2026-08-047
2026-08-055
2026-08-069
2026-08-0710
2026-08-087
2026-08-0911
2026-08-107
2026-08-118
2026-08-126
2026-08-138
2026-08-147
2026-08-157
2026-08-1612
2026-08-175
2026-08-188
2026-08-197
2026-08-208
2026-08-218
2026-08-2210
2026-08-239
2026-08-248
2026-08-259
2026-08-268
2026-08-279
2026-08-285
2026-08-298
2026-08-309
2026-08-319
2026-09-019
2026-09-027
2026-09-0310
2026-09-045
2026-09-056
2026-09-0610
2026-09-074
2026-09-087
2026-09-096
2026-09-109
2026-09-118
2026-09-128
2026-09-138

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Previous computations (4)
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:436dc289658f: observed 8.0 against baseline 7.8 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:a560ce145ba8: observed 31.3 against baseline 30.3 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:8b154fd99529: observed 30.5 against baseline 33.1 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:ad3f63d25cec: observed 8.0 against baseline 8.2 transits per day

Timeline

  1. Press reports the canal has announced a precautionary reduction in Neopanamax draft, a step it had said in mid-May it did not expect to need. [s5]
  2. Advisory A-22-2026 sets the maximum Neopanamax draft at 14.94 metres from 2026-07-24 and 14.78 metres from 2026-08-15. [s1]
  3. The canal announces further draft steps to 14.63 metres and 14.48 metres and says they do not change the number of daily transits. [s2]
  4. An advisory cuts daily Neopanamax slots to nine from 2026-09-03 and Panamax slots to 25, then 23 from 2026-09-15. [s3]
  5. The canal postpones the 14.48 metre step and keeps the 14.63 metre limit. [s4]

Cause

The canal authority cited low water in Gatun Lake, below-expected rainfall in the watershed and a developing El Nino. [s1] [s3]

Corrections

No corrections to this record as of 2026-09-20 (20 September 2026).

Sources

  1. [s1] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping A-22-2026: Draft adjustment in the Neopanamax Locks, published 2026-07-01 (1 July 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (official)
  2. [s2] Panama Canal Authority, Panama Canal Announces New Draft Adjustments for Neopanamax Locks, published 2026-08-05 (5 August 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (official)
  3. [s3] Panama Canal Authority, Panama Canal Adopts Additional Measures to Address Reduced Precipitation in the Canal Watershed, published 2026-08-20 (20 August 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (official)
  4. [s4] Panama Canal Authority, Panama Canal Postpones Neopanamax Draft Adjustment, published 2026-09-04 (4 September 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (official)
  5. [s5] The Maritime Executive, Panama Canal Preemptively Lowers Draft Levels Due to El Nino Forecast, published 2026-06-05 (5 June 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (press)
  6. [s6] IMF PortWatch, Daily chokepoint transit calls, Panama Canal, accessed 2026-09-20. (data)