Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait
Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait. The disruption ran from 2026-07-10 (10 July 2026), and is ongoing, affecting Kerch Strait, Kerch. Kerch Strait averaged 0.4 transits per day during the event window against an expected 10.9 (-96.7%). Kerch Strait averaged 0.0 transits per day during the event window against an expected 1.9 (-1.8). Kerch Strait averaged 0.1 transits per day during the event window against an expected 1.5 (-1.4).
Key facts
- Started
- 2026-07-10 (10 July 2026)
- Ended
- Not ended
- Status
- ongoing
- Severity
- 5 Critical
- Scope
- chokepoint
- Chokepoints
- Kerch Strait
- Ports
- Kerch
- Lanes
- None
- Countries
- Russian Federation, Ukraine
- Confidence
- low: Only two press reports were retrievable and both are Ukrainian outlets covering a war in which both sides make claims; the halt notice itself and any Russian official statement could not be retrieved. The closure is corroborated by IMF PortWatch transit counts, but the number of vessels struck differs between reports and the current status rests on the data alone.
- First reported
- 2026-07-10 (10 July 2026)
- Severity basis: IMF PortWatch transits at the Kerch Strait fell from about 11 a day in June 2026 to a few a day in the days after 2026-07-10 and to under 1 a day on average from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-13, a reduction above 50% for over 30 days.
What happened
On 2026-07-10 (10 July 2026) at 18:10 local time, Russia's border guards told shipping companies that requests to pass through the Kerch Strait would no longer be accepted, and gave no date for lifting the halt. The Don-Azov Channel, the other route into the Sea of Azov, was closed as well. The notice followed Ukrainian drone strikes on at least 13 vessels in the Sea of Azov, including tankers. The Sea of Azov carries up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports, and European wheat futures rose about 4% on the news. IMF PortWatch counted about 11 transits a day through the strait in June, 2 to 6 a day in the days after 2026-07-10, and under 1 a day on average from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-13. No source reviewed reports the halt lifted.
Measured effect
Transits, all vessel types, Kerch Strait
- Baseline (expected)
- 10.9 transits per day
- Observed
- 0.4 transits per day
- Change
- -10.6 (-96.7%)
- Standardised score
- -2.4
- Event window
- 2026-07-10 to 2026-11-06 (120 days, provisional)
- Baseline window
- 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-02 (56 valid days)
- Method
- wfm-effect-1.0
- Computed
- 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026), data revision 1:df6be5356489
Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026).
| Date | transits per day |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |
| 2026-05-03 | 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | 5 |
| 2026-05-06 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 1 |
| 2026-05-08 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17 |
| 2026-05-10 | 11 |
| 2026-05-11 | 8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16 |
| 2026-05-15 | 8 |
| 2026-05-16 | 11 |
| 2026-05-17 | 12 |
| 2026-05-18 | 50 |
| 2026-05-19 | 22 |
| 2026-05-20 | 16 |
| 2026-05-21 | 16 |
| 2026-05-22 | 13 |
| 2026-05-23 | 7 |
| 2026-05-24 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-27 | 9 |
| 2026-05-28 | 8 |
| 2026-05-29 | 3 |
| 2026-05-30 | 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | 6 |
| 2026-06-01 | 8 |
| 2026-06-02 | 3 |
| 2026-06-03 | 18 |
| 2026-06-04 | 25 |
| 2026-06-05 | 20 |
| 2026-06-06 | 12 |
| 2026-06-07 | 12 |
| 2026-06-08 | 7 |
| 2026-06-09 | 13 |
| 2026-06-10 | 10 |
| 2026-06-11 | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 |
| 2026-06-13 | 7 |
| 2026-06-14 | 11 |
| 2026-06-15 | 6 |
| 2026-06-16 | 9 |
| 2026-06-17 | 12 |
| 2026-06-18 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 |
| 2026-06-20 | 14 |
| 2026-06-21 | 11 |
| 2026-06-22 | 11 |
| 2026-06-23 | 14 |
| 2026-06-24 | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 14 |
| 2026-06-26 | 12 |
| 2026-06-27 | 6 |
| 2026-06-28 | 9 |
| 2026-06-29 | 11 |
| 2026-06-30 | 13 |
| 2026-07-01 | 8 |
| 2026-07-02 | 7 |
| 2026-07-03 | 6 |
| 2026-07-04 | 3 |
| 2026-07-05 | 10 |
| 2026-07-06 | 1 |
| 2026-07-07 | 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | 5 |
| 2026-07-09 | 8 |
| 2026-07-10 | 2 |
| 2026-07-11 | 2 |
| 2026-07-12 | 6 |
| 2026-07-13 | 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | 3 |
| 2026-07-15 | 1 |
| 2026-07-16 | 1 |
| 2026-07-17 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 2 |
| 2026-07-20 | 2 |
| 2026-07-21 | 2 |
| 2026-07-22 | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 |
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Transits, tankers, Kerch Strait
- Baseline (expected)
- 1.9 transits per day
- Observed
- 0.0 transits per day
- Change
- -1.8 (percent omitted, baseline too small)
- Standardised score
- -1.2
- Event window
- 2026-07-10 to 2026-11-06 (120 days, provisional)
- Baseline window
- 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-02 (56 valid days)
- Method
- wfm-effect-1.0
- Computed
- 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026), data revision 1:62a18be7ccd7
Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026).
| Date | transits per day |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 1 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1 |
| 2026-05-05 | 2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2 |
| 2026-05-09 | 3 |
| 2026-05-10 | 2 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2 |
| 2026-05-12 | 1 |
| 2026-05-13 | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | 3 |
| 2026-05-15 | 2 |
| 2026-05-16 | 2 |
| 2026-05-17 | 3 |
| 2026-05-18 | 12 |
| 2026-05-19 | 8 |
| 2026-05-20 | 3 |
| 2026-05-21 | 6 |
| 2026-05-22 | 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | 5 |
| 2026-05-27 | 2 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2 |
| 2026-05-29 | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 2 |
| 2026-06-01 | 1 |
| 2026-06-02 | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | 3 |
| 2026-06-05 | 8 |
| 2026-06-06 | 1 |
| 2026-06-07 | 2 |
| 2026-06-08 | 3 |
| 2026-06-09 | 5 |
| 2026-06-10 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | 1 |
| 2026-06-13 | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 5 |
| 2026-06-15 | 2 |
| 2026-06-16 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | 3 |
| 2026-06-18 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | 5 |
| 2026-06-20 | 2 |
| 2026-06-21 | 2 |
| 2026-06-22 | 2 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2 |
| 2026-06-25 | 5 |
| 2026-06-26 | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | 1 |
| 2026-06-28 | 1 |
| 2026-06-29 | 1 |
| 2026-06-30 | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | 2 |
| 2026-07-02 | 2 |
| 2026-07-03 | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 2 |
| 2026-07-06 | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2 |
| 2026-07-09 | 3 |
| 2026-07-10 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 1 |
| 2026-07-13 | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 |
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Transits, dry bulk carriers, Kerch Strait
- Baseline (expected)
- 1.5 transits per day
- Observed
- 0.1 transits per day
- Change
- -1.4 (percent omitted, baseline too small)
- Standardised score
- -0.9
- Event window
- 2026-07-10 to 2026-11-06 (120 days, provisional)
- Baseline window
- 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-02 (56 valid days)
- Method
- wfm-effect-1.0
- Computed
- 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026), data revision 1:452f005c07e9
Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026).
| Date | transits per day |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 2 |
| 2026-05-04 | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1 |
| 2026-05-06 | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | 1 |
| 2026-05-10 | 2 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1 |
| 2026-05-12 | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | 2 |
| 2026-05-15 | 2 |
| 2026-05-16 | 4 |
| 2026-05-17 | 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | 3 |
| 2026-05-20 | 2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 2 |
| 2026-05-25 | 6 |
| 2026-05-26 | 1 |
| 2026-05-27 | 1 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2 |
| 2026-05-29 | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | 1 |
| 2026-06-03 | 5 |
| 2026-06-04 | 3 |
| 2026-06-05 | 1 |
| 2026-06-06 | 5 |
| 2026-06-07 | 1 |
| 2026-06-08 | 1 |
| 2026-06-09 | 3 |
| 2026-06-10 | 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | 1 |
| 2026-06-13 | 2 |
| 2026-06-14 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | 2 |
| 2026-06-18 | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | 2 |
| 2026-06-21 | 3 |
| 2026-06-22 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2 |
| 2026-06-24 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | 1 |
| 2026-06-26 | 2 |
| 2026-06-27 | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 3 |
| 2026-06-29 | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 3 |
| 2026-07-01 | 2 |
| 2026-07-02 | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | 2 |
| 2026-07-05 | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | 1 |
| 2026-07-07 | 2 |
| 2026-07-08 | 1 |
| 2026-07-09 | 1 |
| 2026-07-10 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | 1 |
| 2026-07-12 | 1 |
| 2026-07-13 | 3 |
| 2026-07-14 | 1 |
| 2026-07-15 | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | 1 |
| 2026-07-17 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 2 |
| 2026-07-20 | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | 1 |
| 2026-07-22 | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 |
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Previous computations (42)
- 2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:8b9fdfce9813: observed 19.1 against baseline 12.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:576c26af3184: observed 4.0 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:40a173f48c6d: observed 4.0 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:dfc885e12d8a: observed 4.8 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:def4f105ed55: observed 17.4 against baseline 12.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-28, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:4cde7a1fe379: observed 4.0 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:eea8fde23fd5: observed 4.0 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:6f17d1721480: observed 4.7 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-09-29, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:e8351b2f05c5: observed 18.2 against baseline 12.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:6548174eec91: observed 4.6 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:fbb1dc8f127b: observed 4.7 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-09-29, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:11696e4a0da6: observed 4.0 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:2e6b6d1856a4: observed 18.6 against baseline 12.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-29, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:562866430534: observed 4.7 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-10-28, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:ee2b243b311c: observed 4.8 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-10-28, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:644e17e7f3c7: observed 18.9 against baseline 12.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:9264023aee5c: observed 18.7 against baseline 12.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:ddd52ad01daa: observed 4.1 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:db668e5d8cd9: observed 3.9 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:91a422c0e95f: observed 4.7 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
- 2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:cc9c48d22314: observed 18.2 against baseline 12.8 transits per day
- 2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:13c14114e345: observed 0.5 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:6e40f9a9d64e: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:ddf338e03579: observed 0.2 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:dcd0be6320b7: observed 0.2 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:f7a3aa5f22e7: observed 0.4 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-29, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:efe686c935a5: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-28, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:23d11bffcaa0: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:341b39c92d74: observed 0.5 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:98e3fc655eb3: observed 0.0 against baseline 1.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-28, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:15b84ce77f9c: observed 0.0 against baseline 1.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-28, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:846480485e3a: observed 0.4 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:c8d74d73df5e: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:b2b70bef82a0: observed 0.0 against baseline 1.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:a07d72ba8fa4: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-09-29, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:aeb38e0b2627: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:7c7fd16ecd6b: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
- 2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:abf0b2217532: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.5 transits per day
- 2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:0e8f814c0483: observed 0.0 against baseline 1.9 transits per day
- 2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:d29f6221435d: observed 0.4 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-29, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:424bd72dba1b: observed 0.5 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
- 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:609145e02626: observed 0.6 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
Replay
Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-11-10 (10 November 2026).
| Date | transits per day |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16 |
| 2026-05-15 | 8 |
| 2026-05-16 | 11 |
| 2026-05-17 | 12 |
| 2026-05-18 | 50 |
| 2026-05-19 | 22 |
| 2026-05-20 | 16 |
| 2026-05-21 | 16 |
| 2026-05-22 | 13 |
| 2026-05-23 | 7 |
| 2026-05-24 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-27 | 9 |
| 2026-05-28 | 8 |
| 2026-05-29 | 3 |
| 2026-05-30 | 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | 6 |
| 2026-06-01 | 8 |
| 2026-06-02 | 3 |
| 2026-06-03 | 18 |
| 2026-06-04 | 25 |
| 2026-06-05 | 20 |
| 2026-06-06 | 12 |
| 2026-06-07 | 12 |
| 2026-06-08 | 7 |
| 2026-06-09 | 13 |
| 2026-06-10 | 10 |
| 2026-06-11 | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 |
| 2026-06-13 | 7 |
| 2026-06-14 | 11 |
| 2026-06-15 | 6 |
| 2026-06-16 | 9 |
| 2026-06-17 | 12 |
| 2026-06-18 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 |
| 2026-06-20 | 14 |
| 2026-06-21 | 11 |
| 2026-06-22 | 11 |
| 2026-06-23 | 14 |
| 2026-06-24 | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 14 |
| 2026-06-26 | 12 |
| 2026-06-27 | 6 |
| 2026-06-28 | 9 |
| 2026-06-29 | 11 |
| 2026-06-30 | 13 |
| 2026-07-01 | 8 |
| 2026-07-02 | 7 |
| 2026-07-03 | 6 |
| 2026-07-04 | 3 |
| 2026-07-05 | 10 |
| 2026-07-06 | 1 |
| 2026-07-07 | 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | 5 |
| 2026-07-09 | 8 |
| 2026-07-10 | 2 |
| 2026-07-11 | 2 |
| 2026-07-12 | 6 |
| 2026-07-13 | 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | 3 |
| 2026-07-15 | 1 |
| 2026-07-16 | 1 |
| 2026-07-17 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 2 |
| 2026-07-20 | 2 |
| 2026-07-21 | 2 |
| 2026-07-22 | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 |
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Timeline
- Russian border guards tell shipping companies at 18:10 local time that passage requests through the Kerch Strait will not be accepted, with no reopening date, after Ukrainian drone strikes on vessels in the Sea of Azov. [s1] [s2]
- Commercial navigation through the Don-Azov Channel is suspended as well, and European wheat futures rise about 4%. [s1] [s2]
- IMF PortWatch records 1 transit through the strait, against about 11 a day in June, and no more than 3 a day on any day from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-13. [s3]
- The latest IMF PortWatch day in this archive shows no transits through the strait. [s3]
Cause
Corrections
- 2026-10-08 (8 October 2026): Added one official source (s4, Russian Ministry of Transport statement of 2026-07-14) and cited it on the cause. No date, figure or entity was changed, and the confidence level is unchanged.. Reason: The record rested on two press reports. The transport ministry confirms increased attacks on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov, which is the stated context for the halt. It does not itself confirm the halt.
Sources
- [s1] Euromaidan Press, Russia halts Don-Azov Channel shipping, closes Kerch Strait after Ukrainian tanker strikes, published 2026-07-11 (11 July 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (press)
- [s2] Kyiv Post, Russia Halts Azov Sea Shipping as Ukrainian Drone Campaign Targets Tanker Fleet, published 2026-07-11 (11 July 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (press)
- [s3] IMF PortWatch, Daily chokepoint transit calls, Kerch Strait, accessed 2026-09-20. (data)
- [s4] Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, Минтранс предпринимает меры для обеспечения грузовой логистики в акватории Азовского моря, published 2026-07-14 (14 July 2026), accessed 2026-10-04. Archived copy. (official)
Cite this record
The address of this record is permanent and a correction is always logged on this page, so a citation names the version you read. Add the date you accessed it.
Plain text
World Freight Monitor. "Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait." Last updated 2026-10-08 (8 October 2026). https://worldfreightmonitor.com/events/2026/kerch-strait-closure-2026/
APA
World Freight Monitor. (2026). Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait. World Freight Monitor. https://worldfreightmonitor.com/events/2026/kerch-strait-closure-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{wfm_kerch_strait_closure_2026,
author = {{World Freight Monitor}},
title = {Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait},
year = {2026},
note = {Last updated 2026-10-08},
url = {https://worldfreightmonitor.com/events/2026/kerch-strait-closure-2026/}
}