Data through 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026)
Search

Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait

Russia halts commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait. The disruption ran from 2026-07-10 (10 July 2026), and is ongoing, affecting Kerch Strait, Kerch. Kerch Strait averaged 0.1 transits per day during the event window against an expected 1.8 (-1.8). Kerch Strait averaged 0.5 transits per day during the event window against an expected 10.9 (-95.0%). Kerch Strait averaged 0.2 transits per day during the event window against an expected 1.5 (-1.4).

Follow this disruption day by day

Key facts

Started
2026-07-10 (10 July 2026)
Ended
Not ended
Status
ongoing
Severity
5 Critical
Scope
chokepoint
Chokepoints
Kerch Strait
Ports
Kerch
Lanes
None
Confidence
low: Only two press reports were retrievable and both are Ukrainian outlets covering a war in which both sides make claims; the halt notice itself and any Russian official statement could not be retrieved. The closure is corroborated by IMF PortWatch transit counts, but the number of vessels struck differs between reports and the current status rests on the data alone.
First reported
2026-07-10 (10 July 2026)
  • Severity basis: IMF PortWatch transits at the Kerch Strait fell from about 11 a day in June 2026 to a few a day in the days after 2026-07-10 and to under 1 a day on average from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-13, a reduction above 50% for over 30 days.

What happened

On 2026-07-10 (10 July 2026) at 18:10 local time, Russia's border guards told shipping companies that requests to pass through the Kerch Strait would no longer be accepted, and gave no date for lifting the halt. The Don-Azov Channel, the other route into the Sea of Azov, was closed as well. The notice followed Ukrainian drone strikes on at least 13 vessels in the Sea of Azov, including tankers. The Sea of Azov carries up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports, and European wheat futures rose about 4% on the news. IMF PortWatch counted about 11 transits a day through the strait in June, 2 to 6 a day in the days after 2026-07-10, and under 1 a day on average from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-13. No source reviewed reports the halt lifted.

Measured effect

Transits, all vessel types, Kerch Strait

Baseline (expected)
10.9 transits per day
Observed
0.5 transits per day
Change
-10.4 (-95.0%)
Standardised score
-2.3
Event window
2026-07-10 to 2026-09-20 (73 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2026-05-08 to 2026-07-02 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-22 (22 September 2026), data revision 1:13c14114e345
Transits, all vessel types, Kerch StraitTransits, all vessel types, Kerch Strait, 2026-05-01 (1 May 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2026-07-17 to 50 transits per day on 2026-05-18, with a mean of 5.6 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 0 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-13.010203040502026-05-012026-07-082026-09-13
Transits, all vessel types, Kerch Strait, 2026-05-01 (1 May 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2026-07-17 to 50 transits per day on 2026-05-18, with a mean of 5.6 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 0 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-13.

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-09-15 (15 September 2026).

Transits, all vessel types, Kerch Strait (transits per day).
Datetransits per day
2026-05-015
2026-05-023
2026-05-034
2026-05-044
2026-05-055
2026-05-066
2026-05-071
2026-05-0816
2026-05-0917
2026-05-1011
2026-05-118
2026-05-122
2026-05-131
2026-05-1416
2026-05-158
2026-05-1611
2026-05-1712
2026-05-1850
2026-05-1922
2026-05-2016
2026-05-2116
2026-05-2213
2026-05-237
2026-05-2410
2026-05-2519
2026-05-2617
2026-05-279
2026-05-288
2026-05-293
2026-05-304
2026-05-316
2026-06-018
2026-06-023
2026-06-0318
2026-06-0425
2026-06-0520
2026-06-0612
2026-06-0712
2026-06-087
2026-06-0913
2026-06-1010
2026-06-115
2026-06-126
2026-06-137
2026-06-1411
2026-06-156
2026-06-169
2026-06-1712
2026-06-185
2026-06-1923
2026-06-2014
2026-06-2111
2026-06-2211
2026-06-2314
2026-06-2411
2026-06-2514
2026-06-2612
2026-06-276
2026-06-289
2026-06-2911
2026-06-3013
2026-07-018
2026-07-027
2026-07-036
2026-07-043
2026-07-0510
2026-07-061
2026-07-074
2026-07-085
2026-07-098
2026-07-102
2026-07-112
2026-07-126
2026-07-134
2026-07-143
2026-07-151
2026-07-161
2026-07-170
2026-07-180
2026-07-192
2026-07-202
2026-07-212
2026-07-220
2026-07-230
2026-07-243
2026-07-251
2026-07-260
2026-07-271
2026-07-283
2026-07-290
2026-07-300
2026-07-311
2026-08-011
2026-08-020
2026-08-030
2026-08-040
2026-08-051
2026-08-060
2026-08-070
2026-08-080
2026-08-090
2026-08-101
2026-08-110
2026-08-120
2026-08-130
2026-08-141
2026-08-150
2026-08-160
2026-08-170
2026-08-180
2026-08-190
2026-08-200
2026-08-210
2026-08-221
2026-08-230
2026-08-240
2026-08-250
2026-08-260
2026-08-270
2026-08-280
2026-08-290
2026-08-300
2026-08-310
2026-09-010
2026-09-021
2026-09-030
2026-09-040
2026-09-050
2026-09-060
2026-09-070
2026-09-080
2026-09-090
2026-09-100
2026-09-110
2026-09-120
2026-09-130

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Transits, tankers, Kerch Strait

Baseline (expected)
1.8 transits per day
Observed
0.1 transits per day
Change
-1.8 (percent omitted, baseline too small)
Standardised score
-1.2
Event window
2026-07-10 to 2026-09-20 (73 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2026-05-08 to 2026-07-02 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-22 (22 September 2026), data revision 1:7c7fd16ecd6b
Transits, tankers, Kerch StraitTransits, tankers, Kerch Strait, 2026-05-01 (1 May 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2026-05-01 to 12 transits per day on 2026-05-18, with a mean of 1.2 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 0 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-13.035810132026-05-012026-07-082026-09-13
Transits, tankers, Kerch Strait, 2026-05-01 (1 May 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2026-05-01 to 12 transits per day on 2026-05-18, with a mean of 1.2 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 0 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-13.

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-09-15 (15 September 2026).

Transits, tankers, Kerch Strait (transits per day).
Datetransits per day
2026-05-010
2026-05-020
2026-05-031
2026-05-041
2026-05-052
2026-05-060
2026-05-070
2026-05-082
2026-05-093
2026-05-102
2026-05-112
2026-05-121
2026-05-130
2026-05-143
2026-05-152
2026-05-162
2026-05-173
2026-05-1812
2026-05-198
2026-05-203
2026-05-216
2026-05-224
2026-05-230
2026-05-244
2026-05-254
2026-05-265
2026-05-272
2026-05-282
2026-05-290
2026-05-300
2026-05-312
2026-06-011
2026-06-020
2026-06-034
2026-06-043
2026-06-058
2026-06-061
2026-06-072
2026-06-083
2026-06-095
2026-06-101
2026-06-112
2026-06-121
2026-06-130
2026-06-145
2026-06-152
2026-06-161
2026-06-173
2026-06-181
2026-06-195
2026-06-202
2026-06-212
2026-06-222
2026-06-232
2026-06-242
2026-06-255
2026-06-260
2026-06-271
2026-06-281
2026-06-291
2026-06-300
2026-07-012
2026-07-022
2026-07-030
2026-07-040
2026-07-052
2026-07-060
2026-07-070
2026-07-082
2026-07-093
2026-07-100
2026-07-110
2026-07-121
2026-07-130
2026-07-140
2026-07-150
2026-07-160
2026-07-170
2026-07-180
2026-07-190
2026-07-200
2026-07-210
2026-07-220
2026-07-230
2026-07-240
2026-07-250
2026-07-260
2026-07-270
2026-07-281
2026-07-290
2026-07-300
2026-07-310
2026-08-011
2026-08-020
2026-08-030
2026-08-040
2026-08-050
2026-08-060
2026-08-070
2026-08-080
2026-08-090
2026-08-100
2026-08-110
2026-08-120
2026-08-130
2026-08-141
2026-08-150
2026-08-160
2026-08-170
2026-08-180
2026-08-190
2026-08-200
2026-08-210
2026-08-220
2026-08-230
2026-08-240
2026-08-250
2026-08-260
2026-08-270
2026-08-280
2026-08-290
2026-08-300
2026-08-310
2026-09-010
2026-09-020
2026-09-030
2026-09-040
2026-09-050
2026-09-060
2026-09-070
2026-09-080
2026-09-090
2026-09-100
2026-09-110
2026-09-120
2026-09-130

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Transits, dry bulk carriers, Kerch Strait

Baseline (expected)
1.5 transits per day
Observed
0.2 transits per day
Change
-1.4 (percent omitted, baseline too small)
Standardised score
-0.9
Event window
2026-07-10 to 2026-09-20 (73 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2026-05-08 to 2026-07-02 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-22 (22 September 2026), data revision 1:ddf338e03579
Transits, dry bulk carriers, Kerch StraitTransits, dry bulk carriers, Kerch Strait, 2026-05-01 (1 May 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2026-05-01 to 7 transits per day on 2026-05-08, with a mean of 0.9 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 0 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-13.024682026-05-012026-07-082026-09-13
Transits, dry bulk carriers, Kerch Strait, 2026-05-01 (1 May 2026) to 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2026-05-01 to 7 transits per day on 2026-05-08, with a mean of 0.9 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-09-13, was 0 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-13.

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms. Retrieved 2026-09-15 (15 September 2026).

Transits, dry bulk carriers, Kerch Strait (transits per day).
Datetransits per day
2026-05-010
2026-05-020
2026-05-032
2026-05-040
2026-05-051
2026-05-060
2026-05-070
2026-05-087
2026-05-091
2026-05-102
2026-05-111
2026-05-120
2026-05-130
2026-05-142
2026-05-152
2026-05-164
2026-05-174
2026-05-184
2026-05-193
2026-05-202
2026-05-211
2026-05-221
2026-05-230
2026-05-242
2026-05-256
2026-05-261
2026-05-271
2026-05-282
2026-05-290
2026-05-300
2026-05-310
2026-06-014
2026-06-021
2026-06-035
2026-06-043
2026-06-051
2026-06-065
2026-06-071
2026-06-081
2026-06-093
2026-06-104
2026-06-110
2026-06-121
2026-06-132
2026-06-141
2026-06-151
2026-06-161
2026-06-172
2026-06-180
2026-06-194
2026-06-202
2026-06-213
2026-06-221
2026-06-232
2026-06-243
2026-06-251
2026-06-262
2026-06-270
2026-06-283
2026-06-290
2026-06-303
2026-07-012
2026-07-020
2026-07-030
2026-07-042
2026-07-050
2026-07-061
2026-07-072
2026-07-081
2026-07-091
2026-07-100
2026-07-111
2026-07-121
2026-07-133
2026-07-141
2026-07-150
2026-07-161
2026-07-170
2026-07-180
2026-07-192
2026-07-200
2026-07-211
2026-07-220
2026-07-230
2026-07-241
2026-07-250
2026-07-260
2026-07-270
2026-07-280
2026-07-290
2026-07-300
2026-07-310
2026-08-010
2026-08-020
2026-08-030
2026-08-040
2026-08-050
2026-08-060
2026-08-070
2026-08-080
2026-08-090
2026-08-100
2026-08-110
2026-08-120
2026-08-130
2026-08-140
2026-08-150
2026-08-160
2026-08-170
2026-08-180
2026-08-190
2026-08-200
2026-08-210
2026-08-220
2026-08-230
2026-08-240
2026-08-250
2026-08-260
2026-08-270
2026-08-280
2026-08-290
2026-08-300
2026-08-310
2026-09-010
2026-09-020
2026-09-030
2026-09-040
2026-09-050
2026-09-060
2026-09-070
2026-09-080
2026-09-090
2026-09-100
2026-09-110
2026-09-120
2026-09-130

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Previous computations (6)
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:db668e5d8cd9: observed 3.9 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:6548174eec91: observed 4.6 against baseline 4.3 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:def4f105ed55: observed 17.4 against baseline 12.8 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:609145e02626: observed 0.6 against baseline 10.9 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:6e40f9a9d64e: observed 0.1 against baseline 1.8 transits per day
  • 2026-09-20, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:dcd0be6320b7: observed 0.2 against baseline 1.5 transits per day

Timeline

  1. Russian border guards tell shipping companies at 18:10 local time that passage requests through the Kerch Strait will not be accepted, with no reopening date, after Ukrainian drone strikes on vessels in the Sea of Azov. [s1] [s2]
  2. Commercial navigation through the Don-Azov Channel is suspended as well, and European wheat futures rise about 4%. [s1] [s2]
  3. IMF PortWatch records 1 transit through the strait, against about 11 a day in June, and no more than 3 a day on any day from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-13. [s3]
  4. The latest IMF PortWatch day in this archive shows no transits through the strait. [s3]

Cause

Russia's border guards suspended passage after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, including tankers. Attributed by: Russian border guards, as reported by Euromaidan Press and Kyiv Post. [s1] [s2]

Corrections

No corrections to this record as of 2026-09-20 (20 September 2026).

Sources

  1. [s1] Euromaidan Press, Russia halts Don-Azov Channel shipping, closes Kerch Strait after Ukrainian tanker strikes, published 2026-07-11 (11 July 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (press)
  2. [s2] Kyiv Post, Russia Halts Azov Sea Shipping as Ukrainian Drone Campaign Targets Tanker Fleet, published 2026-07-11 (11 July 2026), accessed 2026-09-20. Archived copy. (press)
  3. [s3] IMF PortWatch, Daily chokepoint transit calls, Kerch Strait, accessed 2026-09-20. (data)